Likely Winner Presidential Election 2024

Likely Winner Presidential Election 2024. This means the election is likely to come down to the few voters who remain undecided. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

Read the full methodology here. Kamala harris moved into a narrow lead in our final update, with her chance of winning rising from 50% to 56%.